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Posts Tagged ‘Bengie Molina’

While it was generally accepted that the Giants would be a team to be reckoned with in 2010, GM Brian Sabean started the party early, acquiring first baseman Ryan Garko from the Indians and second baseman Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates.  My prediction is that these two players will help the deliver the Giants an NLCS championship.  They are huge upgrades over the production that the Giants are currently getting from these positions.  At first base, the Giants received a .747 OPS, ranked 25th in the league, and at second, a .601 OPS, good for a rank of 28. 

Sanchez brings to the table a .776 OPS, and will probably give the giant an extra fifteen runs above average based on weighted on-base average.  Garko owns a .826 OPS, and based on the same statistics, should give the Giants an extra five runs over their current production.  Over the course of 61 games, twenty runs is nothing to shake a stick at.  An extra .33 runs per game would move them from the 27th ranked offence in runs scored to 23rd, a significant increase.  If you add .33 runs per game to their current statistics this season, their Expected Pythagorean Record winning percentage would jump from a pedestrian .532 to .615.  To put that in perspective, the Yankees and Dodgers are leading the league with a .614 winning percentage. 

Already leading the Wild Card Race, the Giants, barring a serious injury to Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain, should slide comfortable into the postseason.  This is when they will be the most dangerous.  Lincecum and Cain form the most dangerous 1-2 punch in the NL, and will be extremely effective in a post-season series.  Let’s take a look at the Giants new and improved roster.

Lineup

C – Bengie Molina (80 OPS+)

1B – Ryan Garko (114 OPS+, 12.1 UZR/150)

2B – Freddy Sanchez ( 109 OPS+, 6.3 UZR/150)

3B – Pablo Sandoval (142 OPS+, -1.07 UZR/150)

SS – Edgar Renteria (65 OPS+, -1.9 UZR/150)

LF – Fred Lewis (93 OPS+, 3.0 UZR/150)

CF – Aaron Rowand (102 OPS+, 8.4 UZR/150)

RF – Randy Winn (86 OPS+, 15.1 UZR/150)

Utility IF – Juan Uribe (94 OPS+, 7.38 UZR/150)

On average, this line-up has an OPS+ of 98.3, barely below league average.  When you combine that with their stellar pitching, they will be a force to be reckoned with.  They are also an above average defensive squad, with a cumulative UZR/150 of 49.31 among these nine players.  This is 49 runs that the Giants will save on defence alone. 

Pitching

SP – Tim Lincecum (2.30 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 1.99 FIP)

SP – Matt Cain (2.27 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.81 FIP)

SP – Barry Zito (4.54 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.37 FIP)

SP – Jonathan Sanchez (4.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.33 FIP)

SP – Randy Johnson (4.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.91 FIP)

Bullpen – (3.37 ERA , 1.32 WHIP, 3.74 ERA)

While starters three through five leave much to be desired, Lincecum and Cain are so dominant and throw so many innings that the Giants still have second best starting pitcher ERA in the league.  The bullpen is ranked third.  Even when you factor out the excellent fielding; the starters and relievers rank third and fourth respectively in FIP.

Even though Sabean gave up a big part of the future in Tim Alderson to acquire Sanchez, it was well worth it.  So there you have it folks, the 2009 NL Champion San Francisco Giants.

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I think the general consensus was that the All-Star game last night was fairly entertaining with a close 4-3 victory by the American League.  However, I thought it was terrible because it was not real baseball.  Here are my biggest issues.

Closer Domination

Fans of teams like the Yankees with dominant closers like Mariano Rivera love it when they hear their closers theme song come on and watch them trot out to slam the door on an opponent in the ninth inning.  Let’s just say Jonothan Papelbon loses some of his aura when he enters the game in the seventh inning.  It was also pretty boring to watch a game you know was over after six innings.  Sure it was still a tie game but the AL essentially had 9 automatic outs to play with thanks to Papelbon, Joe Nathan, and Rivera, the three best closers in the game.  It is not very fun to watch a game where each team has multiple pitchers in the bullpen who are essentially guaranteed to throw a scoreless frame.  Part of the beauty of baseball is that anyone can beat anyone on any giving day, and the lead can change each and every inning.    

Hack Away

This was easily the thing I enjoyed least about the game.  Players were not working the count like they would in a real game, but instead swinging at the first pitch they saw.  This happened for two reasons.  First of all, the pitchers are so dominant that if you fell behind in the count, you were pretty much toast.  The second is that especially for the reserves, you may only get one at-bat.  If you are going up there knowing you might only have one shot at glory, are you going to try and draw a walk?  I do not think so.   

This led to some ridiculous pitch counts.  All of the following pitchers threw one inning:

Mark Buehrle – Nine pitches

Zack Greinke – Ten Pitches

Edwin Jackson – FOUR pitches

Felix Hernandez – Eight pitches

Jonothan Papelbon – Ten pitches

Trevor Hoffman – Five pitches

Francisco Cordero – Nine pitches

Ryan Franklin – Nine pitches

Francisco Rodriguez – Six pitches

That is half of the game in seventy pitches.  Absolutely ridiculous.

The Bengie Molina Effect

This may be an obscure reference, but some of you may know that Molina is dead last in the majors with a BB% of 1%.  He would have fit right in; there was only one unintentional base on balls in the entire game!  I could not find any proof, but I doubt there was a single game in the majors this year that featured one walk.  Once again, this is not real baseball.

The Baserunning

When I watch a baseball game I want to see Ty Cobb going into second with his spikes up and Pete Rose trucking Ray Fosse at the plate.  In the All-Star game you’re lucky to see a guy hustle out a ground ball, let alone try to take an extra base.  Carl Crawford had an opportunity to stretch for a double but settled for a single.  Ichiro tried to “break-up” a double play with about the same gusto as my grandma would have.  In the regular season you see Adam Wainwright taking a throw off his pitching hand to break up a double play.  In the All-Star game, not so much.

Roster Size

I do not think I have to go into much detail here.  Thirty-three players and a billion dominant pitchers; not real baseball.

Fan Voting And The Every Team Must Be Represented Rule

Fan voting has been discussed at length before, but guys like Josh Hamilton and Dustin Pedroia did not deserve to be voted in as starters, and how did 33rd man Shane Victorino get to start?

The representation rule also led to “All-Stars” like Andrew Bailey and Zach Duke.  Barry Petchesky from Deadspin ran a simulation, and the NL All-Stars lost to the New York Yankees.  The All-Stars also had a lower average salary than this collection All-Stars. 

All-Star!

All-Star!

The Player’s Do Not Take It Seriously, At First.

The players could care less about the outcome for the first half of the game.  If you look at the dugout there are hardly any guys up on the railing watching the game intently.  The game only gets serious if it is close in the finals innings.  In a real baseball game you have to be committed from the beginning or it will be chalked up as a loss every time. 

I am sure if I thought for longer I could come up with some more reasons but there are seven for your consideration.

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