The top story in baseball over the last couple of weeks has been the potential destination of trade block member Roy Halladay. Doc is by far the best player currently available, and the suitors are many. I would like to comment on some of the rumors and trade proposals thrown around in the media. These are not necessarily reflective of what is going on behind closed doors, simply what I have read on the Internet.
St. Louis Cardinals
At first glance, this seems like it is a match made in heaven. Halladay is a very private player, I think his wife gets more camera time than he does, and would fit perfectly in St. Louis. It is a baseball crazy city, but the media is not overpowering like in New York or Boston. The Cardinals are also currently leading the NL Central, and Halladay would push them over the top. Imagine a rotation of Halladay, Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro and Lohse. However, that is where the dream ends.
The most common rumor I have heard is a package headlined by Colby Rasmus and Brett Wallace headed to Toronto. First of all, giving up Rasmus would leave an enormous hole in the Cardinals outfield THIS year. They would be forced to start Ludwick, Ankiel and then Duncan or Glaus, if they do indeed decide to move him into the outfield. I am sorry but that is not a championship calibre outfield. I also think Rasmus’ value has increased exponentially over the last four months. He has gone from top prospect to bona fide MLB player. It is a big thing for a prospect to prove he can handle major league pitching, and Rasmus has made the transition almost seamlessly.
Second, a year and a half of Doc is not worth six and a half years of Rasmus and seven years of Wallace, not by a long shot. It does not make sense in terms of finances or on-field product. I do not see this deal happening in a million years.
Los Angeles Dodgers
This seems like another great fit for Halladay. The Dodgers have the best record in the Majors, and are the odds on favourite in the National League, even without Halladay. However, the Dodgers would most likely have to give up either Clayton Kershaw or Matt Kemp.
Let’s start with Kershaw. In his second season, he has a 2.95 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nineteen starts to go along with a 3.42 FIP. Halladay’s numbers, on the other hand, are 2.73, 1.07 and 2.75. Granted, Halladay pitches in a much more difficult division, but Kershaw is an excellent pitcher in his own right. Teams are winning with young, cheap star players, and Kershaw fits that description perfectly. The Dodgers have his rights for the next five and a half years, and will probably not pay him much more over that time frame than they would Halladay over the remaining year and a half on his contract.
Kemp has an OPS of .885 and is leading NL center fielders with a VORP of 34.7. He also has a very respectable UZR/150 of 15.8. While he would be easier to replace than Kershaw because they have Juan Pierre on the bench, I still do not think it is a smart move by the Dodgers. Kemp is a star in the making, and will be an important part of the Dodgers core over the next 3-4 years. He brings almost as much to the table as Halladay. I also do not know if the Blue Jays are in the market for another outfielder. They have much more pressing needs at first base, catcher, and shortstop if they lose Scutaro this off-season.
This is actually the consensus landing spot if Halladay does get traded. While Philadelphia needs him the most, I do not think that this is the best package for the Jays considering that the Phillies do not have a top prospect ranked in the top 50 by Baseball America. They Jays need to get at least one impact player for Halladay, and these Phillies players, other than Happ, just do not seem like they are those type of guys. I am sure many people disagree with this statement but that is my opinion.
San Francisco Giants
I know it is a bit of a darkhorse pick, but I think this is where Halladay will end up if he does indeed get traded. The Giants have surprised a lot of people this year, and I believe there window is in the next two years, which is exactly the same as the Halladay window. Lincecum and Cain are healthy and dominant, Zito seems to have regained a bit of his former ability, Sandoval has emerged as a superstar, and Buster Posey could be ready to replace Bengie Molina behind the player next year. Even though the Giants have scored the third least runs in the National League, they would have to be favourites with a rotation consisting of Lincecum, Cain and Halladay.
The Giants also have the prospects to appease JP Ricciardi’s appetite. Madison Bumgarner was ranked as the ninth best prospect by Baseball America this year, giving the Blue Jays the impact pitcher they need to replace Halladay. He would also probably be ready to go for 2010. This is very important for Toronto as Ricciardi is running out of time, and the Blue Jays are only giving up on this year, not next.
I honestly do not know if Halladay will even be traded. Teams are holding on to their prospects tighter than ever, and it is not the end of the world if JP does not get the package he wants and decides to hold on to Halladay. He still has another year to trade him.